Buffalo to Chicago

What the Data Says About BUF to MDW

The Buffalo to Chicago corridor (BUF → MDW) covers roughly 468 miles and is served by 1 carrier, based on Bureau of Transportation Statistics reporting. Across 4,668 flights in the dataset, this route posts a 85.2% on-time rate with an average delay of 66.7 minutes when flights run late. Over the most recent 24 months of BTS data, 1,582 flights were recorded on this pairing — 23 cancelled (1.5%) and 4 diverted (0.3%). Those baseline metrics tell you what to expect before you book.

Having 1 carrier on the route matters: more carriers generally means more daily schedule options, competitive pricing, and redundancy when flights are cancelled. With 4,668 total flights analyzed, the 85.2% on-time figure is statistically meaningful rather than a small-sample fluke. The 66.7-minute average delay applies only to flights that actually ran late, so it is not the average wait across all departures — the majority of flights on this route depart on time under the BTS definition of a delay (15+ minutes past schedule).

Looking at recent months, Oct 2024 posted the best performance on this corridor at 95% on-time, while Dec 2025 came in at 72% on-time — a 23-point gap between best and worst recent month. For travelers evaluating the BUF to MDW route, the combination of a 85.2% on-time rate, 66.7-minute average delay, 1.5% recent cancellation rate, and 1 available carrier is the concrete summary of what BTS data shows about reliability on this pairing.