Chicago to Buffalo

What the Data Says About MDW to BUF

The Chicago to Buffalo corridor (MDW → BUF) covers roughly 468 miles and is served by 1 carrier, based on Bureau of Transportation Statistics reporting. Across 4,697 flights in the dataset, this route posts a 74.4% on-time rate with an average delay of 55.3 minutes when flights run late. Over the most recent 24 months of BTS data, 1,608 flights were recorded on this pairing — 18 cancelled (1.1%) and 0 diverted (0.0%). Those baseline metrics tell you what to expect before you book.

Having 1 carrier on the route matters: more carriers generally means more daily schedule options, competitive pricing, and redundancy when flights are cancelled. With 4,697 total flights analyzed, the 74.4% on-time figure is statistically meaningful rather than a small-sample fluke. The 55.3-minute average delay applies only to flights that actually ran late, so it is not the average wait across all departures — the majority of flights on this route depart on time under the BTS definition of a delay (15+ minutes past schedule).

Looking at recent months, Sep 2024 posted the best performance on this corridor at 91% on-time, while Jun 2024 came in at 58% on-time — a 33-point gap between best and worst recent month. For travelers evaluating the MDW to BUF route, the combination of a 74.4% on-time rate, 55.3-minute average delay, 1.1% recent cancellation rate, and 1 available carrier is the concrete summary of what BTS data shows about reliability on this pairing.