San Francisco to Fresno

What the Data Says About SFO to FAT

The San Francisco to Fresno corridor (SFO → FAT) covers roughly 158 miles and is served by 2 carriers, based on Bureau of Transportation Statistics reporting. Across 6,701 flights in the dataset, this route posts a 83.5% on-time rate with an average delay of 76.1 minutes when flights run late. Over the most recent 24 months of BTS data, 2,365 flights were recorded on this pairing — 31 cancelled (1.3%) and 0 diverted (0.0%). Those baseline metrics tell you what to expect before you book.

Having 2 carriers on the route matters: more carriers generally means more daily schedule options, competitive pricing, and redundancy when flights are cancelled. With 6,701 total flights analyzed, the 83.5% on-time figure is statistically meaningful rather than a small-sample fluke. The 76.1-minute average delay applies only to flights that actually ran late, so it is not the average wait across all departures — the majority of flights on this route depart on time under the BTS definition of a delay (15+ minutes past schedule).

Looking at recent months, Jun 2024 posted the best performance on this corridor at 93% on-time, while Dec 2024 came in at 61% on-time — a 32-point gap between best and worst recent month. For travelers evaluating the SFO to FAT route, the combination of a 83.5% on-time rate, 76.1-minute average delay, 1.3% recent cancellation rate, and 2 available carriers is the concrete summary of what BTS data shows about reliability on this pairing.