San Diego to Sacramento

What the Data Says About SAN to SMF

The San Diego to Sacramento corridor (SAN → SMF) covers roughly 480 miles and is served by 15 carriers, based on Bureau of Transportation Statistics reporting. Across 30,295 flights in the dataset, this route posts a 81.6% on-time rate with an average delay of 55.3 minutes when flights run late. Over the most recent 24 months of BTS data, 10,550 flights were recorded on this pairing — 87 cancelled (0.8%) and 7 diverted (0.1%). Those baseline metrics tell you what to expect before you book.

Having 15 carriers on the route matters: more carriers generally means more daily schedule options, competitive pricing, and redundancy when flights are cancelled. With 30,295 total flights analyzed, the 81.6% on-time figure is statistically meaningful rather than a small-sample fluke. The 55.3-minute average delay applies only to flights that actually ran late, so it is not the average wait across all departures — the majority of flights on this route depart on time under the BTS definition of a delay (15+ minutes past schedule).

Looking at recent months, Jan 2025 posted the best performance on this corridor at 87% on-time, while Oct 2024 came in at 69% on-time — a 18-point gap between best and worst recent month. For travelers evaluating the SAN to SMF route, the combination of a 81.6% on-time rate, 55.3-minute average delay, 0.8% recent cancellation rate, and 15 available carriers is the concrete summary of what BTS data shows about reliability on this pairing.