Minneapolis to Chicago

What the Data Says About MSP to MDW

The Minneapolis to Chicago corridor (MSP → MDW) covers roughly 349 miles and is served by 12 carriers, based on Bureau of Transportation Statistics reporting. Across 16,184 flights in the dataset, this route posts a 84.8% on-time rate with an average delay of 63.7 minutes when flights run late. Over the most recent 24 months of BTS data, 5,589 flights were recorded on this pairing — 60 cancelled (1.1%) and 10 diverted (0.2%). Those baseline metrics tell you what to expect before you book.

Having 12 carriers on the route matters: more carriers generally means more daily schedule options, competitive pricing, and redundancy when flights are cancelled. With 16,184 total flights analyzed, the 84.8% on-time figure is statistically meaningful rather than a small-sample fluke. The 63.7-minute average delay applies only to flights that actually ran late, so it is not the average wait across all departures — the majority of flights on this route depart on time under the BTS definition of a delay (15+ minutes past schedule).

Looking at recent months, Oct 2024 posted the best performance on this corridor at 94% on-time, while Dec 2025 came in at 63% on-time — a 31-point gap between best and worst recent month. For travelers evaluating the MSP to MDW route, the combination of a 84.8% on-time rate, 63.7-minute average delay, 1.1% recent cancellation rate, and 12 available carriers is the concrete summary of what BTS data shows about reliability on this pairing.